Ordinary People Investment

Making a decisiont to let go Genting

2010-09-26T22:55:00.003+08:00

I have been asking myself, should I sell or should I not sell? After all, the punters have been chasing this counter and I'm supposed to go against the flow. Sell before these guys start to realize they are not going to get anything.

In order to get an answer, I went to watch Wall Street. Hope to learn something or two. You may say I'm crazy but I treat this type of movie pretty serious. It maybe a drama, but it does reflect the real thing in life.

Greed will destroy a person. But if you use it in a positive manner, you can change a person life. So I have made a decision to sell this counter and take my profit. By doing this, I do not need to worry whether will this stock rise or I should not sell now. Once it is done, just move on. After all, profit is a profit.

Beating the market for 15 years by Bill Miller

2010-09-20T14:56:00.002+08:00

The article can be found in this URL.

Wall Street Part 2

2010-09-16T00:28:00.004+08:00

So what does Wall Street Part 2 got to do with us? Well, it definitely has to do with us in every part of it. As an ordinary investor, we must not let greed get into our way.

Like what Michael Douglas said in the movie,"It's easy to get in, it's hard to get out."

So you had bought your shares cheap cheap during the subprime crisis. Now most or in fact all have increased tremendously. So what's next now? Sell? Or keep hoping it will go higher? You have to decide when to get out.

After all, It's easy to get in, it's hard to get out. If you are going for capital appreciation, it's not about when you get in, It's about when you are going to get out.

SIA

2010-09-16T00:18:00.003+08:00

Well, the most profitable airline in the World. Strong branding, can always sell expensive seats and of course, only fly big planes.

So is this stock worth buying? Based on DBS Vickers coverage on 30th of July 2010, the price target is $18.62. As of today, it is already $16. So if you intend to buy today, you have $2 dollar more to go before what's next.

In my opinion, SIA shares are meant for capital appreciation, not for dividend yield. After all, it only pays out less than 1%. So WTF of buying and forget? So for those of us who bought it during those dark hours where SIA was cutting here and there, you are going to gain very handsome profit soon.

If you bought it when DBS Vickers coverage was at $10 during last year Feb, today you have already gained at least $6 per share. So, two more bucks before thinking of letting go.

But if you want to gain dividend yield from SIA? Why not consider SIA support companies? It means if these companies do not operate, SIA can't operate either. Consider SATS and SIA Engineering.

Impact of Property Market

2010-09-15T16:14:00.003+08:00

With the recent policies about buying properties in Singapore, so what is it going to happen to the stock market? I'm no God and thus, I can't tell you.

If you are wanting to invest in properties for a long long time and now you can't, or maybe you can but don't know when? So where do you put your money now?

I believe some of these folks are going to put it in the stock market, definitely not bank. What does this mean? Some counters may start rising faster than it should.

Let's look at one counter.

G13 (Genting Singapore): When DBS Vickers covered this counter on the 13th of August 2010, the price was $1.28 and their price target is $2 in the next 12 months. As of today, 15th of September before closing, it is already $.197. So do you need to wait for 12 months to reach $2? Maybe at the end of this week, it is going to be $2!!!

So some people must be chasing this counter right? Who says 13 is an unlucky number.

Rebalancing my portfolios

2010-09-15T15:56:00.005+08:00

This is what I have currently in my CDP. I have another bunch in my CPF whereby I buy and forget:

Cityspring (For dividend yield. Sold today)
Capitaland (For capital appreciation)
Genting SP (For capital appreciation)
SATS
SIA (For capital appreciation)
Soup Restaurant (For discount when I eat at Soup Restaurant. keke...)

I have sold my Cityspring. Own OCBC for a day as well and sold it the next day. After buying it, just realized it didn't fit into what I want to achieve for now.

Since I have sold my Cityspring, I will be putting more resources in Capitaland as I believe it is going to appreciate further.

Suntec REIT

2010-09-15T15:32:00.002+08:00

Like any other REITs, you buy it for its dividend yield. Based on DBS vickers online info, the yield itself is 8.496%. So it is not bad, close to 10% actually.

However, there is another side of it about Suntec. It's location is constantly affected by events such as road closures (yup. F1 is coming), and then you have IT show whereby nobody wants to go there.

So definitely in certain period of the months, retail will be down. Does it affect the rental? I think it does. If the retail stores gets fed up of it, they move somewhere else. Just look at the shops that is near to the MRT exit, it is now Killiney Kopitam. I remember before that, there were many others who had tried there.

So back to the question now. How about buying it for capital appreciation? Did you realize that this counter is climbing again steadily as compared to other counters?

Starhill Global: 52 week low: $0.504. 52 week high: $0.643. Boring

If you compare Suntec to Capital Mall, of course Capital Mall is more exciting. However, here's the interesting facts. Suntec has higher dividend yield than Capital Mall and Capital Mall is more expensive than Suntec. $1.43 (Suntec) vs $2.04 (Capital Mall) as of today. So which one will you buy?

Singapore Post, a very boring counter

2010-09-15T15:17:00.003+08:00

Yup.

Damn boring. It goes down slowly, and it goes up slowly. So how? You can't get a kick out of it. Should you buy then? As it continues to transform itself, let's not forget the dividend yield is 5.208%. Not bad right?

Better than our POSB bank.

Based on today DBS Vickers online info, 52 week low was $0.910, and 52 week high was $1.230. So, I guess you won't get a heart attack if you buy this counter.

I'm not a value investor, are you?

2010-09-15T14:59:00.004+08:00

It's been a long time that I have not updated this blog. Time to write something.

ya man...

First thing first, I'm not a value investor. For a simple reason, I still don't know how to do those calculations. Let me tell you why.

How do you calculate those intrinsic values? I don't know.
How do you calculate margin of safety? I don't know.

So just based on the above two pointers, you are already know I'm not a Mr. Warren Buffet types of investor. If I am, then I won't be ordinary. I'm just a guy who wakes up in the morning, have to bring my son to his care-taker, takes my breakfast, do my work and on and off, my wife nags at me. That's about all. Some boring and ordinary right? Yup, I do feel the same too.

So some of my friends ask me how do I invest them? Just read the first few chapters of Alan Haft's "You can never be too rich." I thought I want to be one!

In one of the chapters, he said buy the company which produces a product that you can't live without it. And thus, he bought Apple since he is a Mac user. I want that too but not at the moment, although I use iPhone, iPad, Macbooks and I lost my iPod. There will be a day I will buy Apple share.

So in my opinion, if you read newspaper in Singapore, buy SPH then. Travel MRT, buy SMRT then. Do you fly? SIA? It is always my all time favourite since I fly very often. The list goes on and on and on...

The next question is pretty important. Are you investing for dividend or capital appreciation? If you are investing for dividend, then you will be buying and forget and of course, the company you are going to buy has to be around for the next 100 years. If you are buying for capital appreciation, it's all about buy low sell high. You have to be a hunter, swim against tides and most importantly, a bag full of bullets. So what are you?

8 essential tips to grow your money

2010-08-13T15:49:00.001+08:00

This is an online article from Asia1.com.

Here's the URL: http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My%2BMoney/Story/A1Story20100811-231612.html

What do you need in order to survive?

2009-11-29T13:16:00.001+08:00

Is this a simple question? and I think it is. What do I really need in order to survive? Well, we need to live, eat, sleep, breath, drink, take transport to work, a company to provide us a paycheck and etc... And how does it relate to investment then?

Well, there is. There are specific stocks that are related in providing basic need.

Air: Don't know yet. haha... If you have found one, let me know.
Eat: Oh yes. Cityspring provides gas and electricity.
Drink: Hyflux water
Transport: Comfortdelgro, SMRT, SBS and etc...
Company: Well, if your company is listed, buy them if you have confidence in your company.
Information provider: SPH?
Office space: Suntec and etc...
Industrial estate: If you work in industrial estate, what about A-reit? Cambridge or etc...
Healthcare: Parkway?

Actually, there are many more. These stocks are easy to understand and definitely, you can buy them will confidence.

Black Horse: Singapore Post

2009-11-29T12:46:00.001+08:00

Maybe you are wondering why am I saying Singapore Post is a black horse? After all, Singapore Post main business is in postage and delivery services. But let me really ask you a simple question. Do you think that is their main business? To me, I don't really think so. When you walk to Singapore Post today, you will notice a few things:

People queuing up to buy postage stamps and sending stuffs to overseas.
Glass cabinets displaying some items that they hope you will buy, which I doubt so. I have sat in Singapore Post numerous time and I don't see anyone buying it. Let's put it this way, why should I buy in Singapore Post whereby I can buy somewhere else? The Singapore Post brand just doesn't coincide.
Here's the interesting one. Beside the above 2 points, you will see the Singapore Post office has shrank their shop front space. Instead, you will see another tenant beside Singapore Post providing other kinds of services.

Isn't that interesting?

There is a pub beside the Singapore Post at Killiney Road.
There is a early learning centre beside the Singapore Post at Alexandra Road.

There are many more out there. Singapore Post has become more like a landlord today than just an organization that moves items from point A to point B. To me, it is more like a REIT now. Watch out for their dividends yield.

Savings

2009-10-09T06:53:00.003+08:00

Just a thought after reading a book on investing.

"An Investor needs to save and a Saver needs to invest."

If we continue to invest, we will lose liquidity on hand. One might say "I can always sell my stocks to get cash." Yes, you are right but, can you guarantee that you won't lose money? On the other hand, if you keep on saving and don't invest, you are simply losing money everyday in the bank. Afterall, inflation rate is always higher than bank interest rate.

Putting money in the bank is essential for cashflow purposes. But too much becomes a money losing habit.

Can you see? Can you touch? Can you feel?

2009-04-11T22:18:00.006+08:00

The recent S-chips have taken a beating in the market. Have you ever wondered what you are buying? Are you really buying what you are really buying? Do you know who is really running the show before you buy?

When comes to buying long term, it is important to buy something that we can really see it, use it and feel it. If that particular stock does not satisfy these criteria, think twice or thrice.

This is because we are investing for really long term, if we have not seen it before, use it before or feel it before, how would you know it will be there for long term?

For example, you are going to buy Singapore Airlines share now. It is really cheap now as it compares to other period. But may I ask you a question? Have you taken the airline recently? How do you find their service level as compared to others? How was your experience in terms of booking, inside the plane and till alighting?

This is because, with such first-hand experience, you will know how long this airline can compete with others for long. And then, you will be able to make a well-informed decision whether you want to invest in this company for long.

If you don't fly, you will be better off buying something that you use daily such as public transport and etc...

Do you see value in Indexes?

2009-03-26T00:13:00.004+08:00

A lot of people out is always fascinated with those highly complex investment products. Options, Forex, Commodities and etc...

Of course, the list can go on and on and on...

However, if you are just an average retail investor, why not invest in Indexes? Index investing is one of the easiest investment product that you want to put your money in. It is similar to Unit Trust except, it has very low management fee. You lose money the moment you buy the Unit Trust. It does not happen to Index investment.

For example, STI index has fallen so much from its all time of near 3000 points. Today it is only half of that. Have you thought of putting money into it?

Investing in Indexes are not clamorous. It does not show you are a knowledgeable investor. It does not have anything for you to boast about in front of your friends.

Just imaging.

Mr. A," Hey friend, what have you bought recently? Yesterday I just bought X company right issues. And also, Y Company shares. It is very cheap now. What about you?"

Mr. B," Hmm... You really had bought a lot of stuffs. As for me, I had bought STI Index. That's all."

What do you think of their conversation? Who is more sophisticated? Who is more conservative?

It's your choice.

Warren Buffet's Financial Fitness Advice

2009-01-03T19:41:00.005+08:00

I just read FitnessFirst Singapore bimonthly members' newletter. It has this advice from Warren Buffet that I think, it is worth sharing with everybody.

------
In mid 2008, 31,000 shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway descended upon Omaha in the United States to hear Warren Buffet field questions ranging from personal to business investments. Here is a succinct piece of advice for everybody.

Question:"What is the one biggest piece of advice you would give to a young investor like me?"

Warren Buffet:"Think for a moment that you are given a car and told this is the only car you would get for the rest of your life. Then you would make sure that your car is taken care of well, it is oiled and detailed every now and then. You would make sure that it never gets rusted, and you would garage it. Think of yourself as that car. You just get one body, one mind and one soul. Take care of it well. Invest in yourself that would be of my advice."

Are you a sound investor?

2008-11-26T00:08:00.003+08:00

In chapter 24, the writer talks about sound investor vs those get quick rich etc... investors.

I think by now, all of us will know about Warren Buffet investment styles. Very straight forward and very easy. If he can understands, so can you. He doesn't understand, so do you.

So next time when you want to invest something, ask yourself this very simple question. Does the man on the street understand this share? Does Warren Buffet understand this company? Can you describe this company with one paragraph? If you can desscribe it in one sentence is even better.

For example, if you are buying a transport company shares? Can you describe what does the company transport? Where are the locations? What happens to the company during recession? What happens to the company during bull-run? Isn't that interesting? Not every transport company is the same. So, we have to ask and ask and ask.

Warrent Buffet: Avoid the costly mistakes of others

2008-11-02T07:25:00.002+08:00

Chapter 23 really makes me think a lot. For a very simple reason, I can relate it to those structured products sold by DBS and bought many of those who didn't know what they were buying.

In this chapter, it talked about how those retiree invested their hard-earned money by listening to those so-called gurus and in the end, they either lost the entire sum or a substaintial of it. And this is what happening right now to many of those who bought the structured products from DBS.

Thus, it is very important for us to study the mistakes of other investor so as not to "go there".

From these fiasco, there are 3 lessons to be learnt:

Firstly, Structured products are very complex. It is not meant for the people from the street.
Secondly, if the so called Bank Relationship Manager doesn't know what they are selling, do you think you should invest?
Thirdy, have you asked them why this product not the others? Is it because this product is the flavour of the month?

Let's learnt from Warren Buffet, buy things you understand. If not, just park the money somewhere even though you are losing it. It is better to lose a few percentage than substaintial of it.

Fixed Deposit interest can never catch up with inflation rate. Thus, technically speaking, you are losing money the moment you put your money in the fixed deposit. However, it is still better than losing the entire sum.

Have you ever thought of buying a piece in the World?

2008-10-25T19:21:00.001+08:00

Yesterday, we saw of the greatest fall in the stock market in history. Some of call it black Friday, just like the black Monday back in last century.

So, as an ordinary person, what should we do now if we have some money? Well, the safest bet is still in our banks, as long as our government guarantee it. If not, under pillow is still the safest choice as long as your home is properly secured.

If not, you have the following options to consider:

With this financial crisis, Fixed Deposit interest will start going up because the banks need your money to maintain their operation. Without your money, they can't invest to make more money. However, the FD interest rate will never be higher than inflation rate. Thus, in real terms, you are still losing money.
Our second choice is to invest the money that will give us a higher return than the inflation rate. We need something that is low risk. Any kind of investment will have a risk. It is either big or small. Of course, I'm not going to recommend structured products. Those folks who push for these products are basically commission driven. After all, it FD does not give them any commission at all. If you draws a basic salary and a target to meet to get your commission, what kind of products will you recommend? Any ordinary people will know how to answer.
Loan interest will fall too. Maybe this is a good time to buy any good private property. Take up a cheap loan to finance it. Unless you have to lots of money to spare, if not, just leave this option out.
How about buying a country? Have you ever thought of that? However, you must understand that buying a country can be pretty risky. Especially if you have been to bank and your so-called relationship "manager" had done a risk profile for you. He or she will tell you buying country funds are considered very high risk. I do agree with them. However, at this point of time, these so-called country funds have become dirt cheap. In fact, very cheap.

Now the question is, which country to buy? Now, let's back to simplicity rather than making this matter complex. Walk around your house. Ask yourself, what are the products that you are currently using now is manufactured by this country? Do you have faith in this country? If you have, you can consider buying them. Either through unit trust or shares such as iShares that have major indexes in each of those countries around us.

So what do I have at home?

Sharp LCD make in Japan.
iPOD made in USA. I think so. If not, maybe made in China. Haha...
I always use Samsung handphone. Currently using Samsung i750 and my wife uses i600.
I'm also using Samsung monitor for my PC.
Some of home appliances are made in Germany.
A water treatment system and a air-purifier made in US.

So what should I buy? These are my thoughts and should you want to follow, it's your choice. I'm not going to be responsible for it.

My no.1 choice is Korea. For a very simple reason, I like Samsung a lot. Furthermore, the Korea Kospi has lost more than 60% of its value. One year ago, it was at about 2000 points and right now, it is just 1000. What do you think? Is it cheap now? Maybe it will fall further. Who knows?
I don't really drive. So I'm not into Japan.
I have many things from Germany, but the country is too far away. I don't really understand them. Forget it.
US? Well, it is a country that we always familiar with. Afterall, I have some products manufactured in US. The S&P growth index from iShares were about 70 bucks about a year ago. Right now, it is just around 40 bucks. Should consider them. Afterall, they were the one who started the whole problem.
Lastly, it will be STI index. My own country. Afterall, I use Singtel, bank with DBS, I have Starhub maxonline and etc... Right now, it is just 1700 points which is the level in September 2003.

My pick will be my hometown Singapore, US and Korea.

Warrent Buffet: Be Fearful When Everybody is Greedy

2008-10-25T10:43:00.000+08:00

Just read the article regarding Warren Buffet yesterday in the Singapore Sunday Tines (19th of October, 2008). He said,"Be Fearful When Everbody is Greedy and be Greedy, When Everybody is Fearful."

Totally agreed with him. Average retail investors will start selling even the company is good and sound. Sometimes, you wonder why do people sell their shares in those solid blue chips companies. My only thought is this, they are not educated and think the company will close down, or that is their only $$$ and they need it for some usage.

I remember I got this advice from a very old friend. "Exit the market when all the aunties and uncles are buying. When your grandmother is giving you advice on the stock market. If that's happens, be very fearful about it and exit the market. If all the aunties and uncles are selling, then it is time to buy." Isn't that interesting???

Anyway, back to the Sunday times article. He said he is going to buy US. So what about us? Our funds are limited. However, there is still chance for us to buy. We can buy through unit trust. Right now, all the countries funds are at their rock bottom prices. If you are willing to take a long term view, buy it for future sakes, then there will be return. Only for long term.

Check out my mindmap. Remember, this is my own opinions only. Buy at your own risk. I'm not going to be responsible for it.

Warrent Buffet: Concentrate your stock investments

2008-10-25T10:38:00.000+08:00

As an army boy, we believe destruction is greatest when you have a big bomb. With a big, you don't need to send a huge army to suffer loses. This theory can be applied to stocks too.

Based on the book, "How Buffet Does It, 24 Simple Investing Strategies", chapter 8. CONCENTRATE YOUR STOCK INVESTMENTS.

Warren Buffet likes to have only a few holdings and to invest a lot of money into them. If you've found the right stock, why buy only a little? He subscribes to Mae West's philosophy that "too much of a good thing is wonderful."
Buy 5 to 10 good companies at a bargain price and buy as large a position in each as you can.
In 2004, Bershire Hathaway had significant investments in only 10 publicly traded companies.

Anyway, on the left is the mindmap that I had created for myself. You can take a look at it. However, whatever you decision you make, is your own decision. I will not take responsibility of it. Good luck.